A United Ireland Referendum Should Not Transform Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Warn

A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."